In China's financial structure, the indirect financing of the main institutions are commercial banks, the main place for direct financing of the stock market (including stocks and bonds), since the formation of these two markets has been a mismatch, each other contact is not close. But since 2007, banks and the stock market more closely the relationship between a change in the market will immediately affect the other markets. This relationship between the two may be mutually reinforcing relationship However, under certain conditions they may be mutual checks and balances. from the 2009 situation, in August before the two are mutually reinforcing, and after the third quarter, the banks and the stock market began to mutual restraint.
a , the performance of banking stocks as the benchmark stock market ups and downs before 2005
stock market, listing only the Shenzhen Development Bank shares and China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank three, the three banks accounted for the proportion of current stock market value of only 5 % of state commercial banks have little effect on the stock market.
2005 years after the three years, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank that the big three state-controlled banks have joined the stock market, during which there are Bank of Nanjing, Beijing Bank of Ningbo Bank, CITIC Bank, Bank, Huaxia Bank,bailey UGG boots, Minsheng Bank, visit the stock market to commercial banks sector has become a stock market capitalization weight of the largest plate, accounting for the stock market value of more than 30%, commercial banks, stock performance has directly become the benchmark stock market ups and downs, no one can hold a candle to the industry, therefore, movement of the Index depends to a considerable extent, banks face.
Why, then, by 2005 most commercial banks are not listed, and after 2005 urgent public financing? There are two important reasons, one is a commercial bank regulatory regime change, the other is the process of banking reform and state restrictions on bank asset quality. First look at the first factor, prior to 2001, China supervision of commercial banks in the main indicator is the ratio of assets and liabilities, commercial bank deposits as long as you can put the new loan,cheap UGG boots, therefore, decided to act and the commercial banking business the main factor is the size of the amount of deposits, and not necessarily related to how much capital , banks to be listed if not does not affect its business. For example, Shenzhen Development Bank is the first listed, the first is the Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed company, the bank was established in 1987, and the setting up of the bank and the other in Shenzhen a bank is China Merchants Bank, China Merchants Bank was listed in 2001, later than the full market depth development for 11 years, but the business development of China Merchants Bank is far more than Shenzhen Development Bank can be seen there is no clear market advantage. but in 2001 years after China joined WTO, commercial banks, major changes in the regulatory system, capital management as an important means of commercial bank regulation, capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks to become directly affect their business development targets, to raise capital through the stock market King became an urgent need for commercial banks.
2005 years ago, the impact of commercial banks in the second factor is the process of restructuring state-owned banks. For historical reasons, China's state-owned commercial bank's asset quality has been poor, large state-owned banks before the reform started in 2001, the negative rate of 30%, therefore, the reform of state-owned commercial banks has been difficult, but can not meet the listing criteria.
the context of the new system, commercial banks will be the general trend of financing Hundreds of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks will implement the program listing and financing, banking stocks in the stock market share will continue to increase, the trend of bank shares on the stock market impact will be bigger and bigger. This institutional investors, especially the increasing influence of index funds.
from the perspective of foreign investors, China's commercial banks to create the GDP accounted for only about 6%, but the market value of listed commercial banks accounted for the total market value of the H shares 50%, therefore, owned shares in bank stocks become synonymous with optimistic about China's economic growth first choice is to invest in Chinese banks. In early 2009, again in the gloomy global economic situation, clearly stated China's economy eight security target asset allocation of international capital will move on to Chinese banks. in the same pursuit of international capital, the Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks with outstanding performance, business and banking share price began to approach its highest level in 2007. And the Hong Kong market A-share market performance and the valuation of direct impact. In short, the banks have become about A-share market and the major H-share market forces.
Second, commercial bank credit expansion rate directly about the stock market ups and downs
2009 in the first half of the stock market is mainly pushed up by the credit funds, no credit throttle the rapid expansion of China's stock market can not play the leading role in the world. In order to address the financial crisis, the People's Bank started from November 2008 to give up on the management of commercial bank credit lines. After the credit blowout: November 2008 increased more than 4700 billion yuan of credit, in December 2008 an additional 760 billion yuan of credit, credit growth in the first half of 2009, 7.37 trillion yuan.
driven by the expansion in credit, China's rapid increase in money supply, broad money supply increased from 16% in 2008, increased in October 2009 to 30%, broad money supply of more than nominal GDP growth rate of over 20 percentage points , a record, this is the stock market in 2009, analysts have been upbeat about China's stocks the most important basis (see the June-August 2009 between the macro-analysis of gold, macro-analysis of Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs Gao Hua macro-analysis reports).
course, the index is also inseparable from the sharp rise in the contribution of bank shares, starting from early June, the bank shares the collective force, the stock market prices began to accelerate from 2700 and easily above 3000 point mark. Interestingly, the banks began to surge from early June, with the corresponding number of credit growth is June's record high. Of course, many people do not think that credit funds into the stock market, at least so far There is no direct evidence that there is indeed a lot of credit funds into the stock market, but no one should deny the credit growth rate effects on the stock market. From early August stock price nosedive began, the most direct factor is released in July significant reduction in the number of credit (less than in June a Bacheng). And October's stock market rebounded in large part because the credit announced in September than-expected data.
Third, banks began to become a restricted market rally factors can be seen from the above analysis
, the stock market and commercial banks can complement each other: commercial bank credit expansion lead to rising stock market, and stock market boom can be added to the huge capital of commercial banks, commercial banks have sources of capital continue to be able to continue expansion of credit, and so the cycle.
But for now, it was an apparent paradox: the stock market prices subject to commercial bank credit growth, but the commercial banks with capital limit has been used to increase the huge amount of credit through the issuance of shares to be way to replenish capital, while the huge issue of shares will increase the supply of the stock market, the stock market loss of blood. China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Industrial Bank, in August announced a financing plan before and after the stock drop more than 20% of the the performance of this contradiction and paradox has been clear to investors.
why the stock market and commercial banks and promote each other into a mutual loved by the elbow? problem is that China Banking Regulatory Commission to tighten the commercial bank capital requirements, which is actually commercial bank credit policy shift began, from August into the previous policy of aggressive expansion in order to guard against the risk-based policy of austerity. Although the tone of our country's monetary policy has not changed, but the operation has been apparent a signal is the China Banking Regulatory Commission to subordinated debt capital from commercial banks deducted. According to the CBRC's new rules, the holders of subordinated bonds between banks from commercial banks should be deducted from subsidiary capital. At present about 2,000 the number of such bonds billion, a subsidiary from the bank if the total net capital, commercial bank credit expansion means a great impact on capacity. As the intensity is too large, the market rebounded strongly in the sound, then, to take the (Subordinated Debt in accordance with the old way the old terms, the new approach under the new subordinated debt terms), even if in accordance with the > additional capital through the stock market is clearly not the imaginary channels mainly in the following three ways: First, let your profits into capital, but the current commercial bank credit growth is fast, by way of retained profits can not meet the requirements; the second is to issue bonds, due to the scale of commercial banks needed capital is large, in general, to issue subordinated bonds to the peer; third offering. can be seen, in the present case,UGGs, the stock market is no trivial matter for commercial banks, meaning there is no steady stream of capital to add the stock market, even if there are deposits of commercial banks also made not loans.
the context of the global financial crisis, China's commercial banks from the financial point of view the most healthy, benefiting from the 2005-2007 bull market in stocks, during the Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank have been completed the work of public financing and raised a huge amount of capital, which is the last bull market of the most important historical contributions. As the first half of 2008,UGG shoes, commercial banks, the average capital adequacy ratio of more than 10%, listed commercial bank's capital adequacy ratio of more than 12%. can It is no exaggeration to say that, if not before the stock market in 2007 to add a huge amount of commercial bank capital, in November 2008 since the credit expansion can not be in the regulatory framework does not break through the effective implementation of the case.
but after 2009 blowout in credit, commercial bank's capital adequacy ratio had been significantly reduced, basically close to the regulatory bottom line. If credit continues to increase in 2010, you need to replenish capital, according to the scale of computing the credit in 2009, commercial banks net retained profit In addition, at least 5,000 billion additional capital, according to the size of the market forecast of 7 trillion calculations also need to add 400 billion yuan of capital. Of course, not all of the capital through the stock market to be added, but the stock market must be the main channel .
banks tens of billions of shares of financing will have a greater impact on stock prices. But the stock market can not be achieved if the financing of business, credit expansion would be significantly restricted, the stock market's rise will be further affected. < br> However, I think that commercial banks should take immediate action to Hong Kong market to finance, because of international capital optimistic about the tone of the Chinese economy have not changed on the investment banks will not share any major changes, if you wait until bad rate began to rise, the international capital of Chinese banks will be reversed attitude, Chinese banks will be discarded as Bilv.
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